ECB schroeft stimuleringen verder op

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De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) gaat in de komende maanden sneller staatsobligaties opkopen. DE ECB doet dit naar eigen zeggen om een illiquide markt te voorkomen. In de zomermaanden neemt de liquiditeit in de markt normaliter af (minder handel) en dit kan voor volatiliteit zorgen op de obligatiemarkt. De Fransman Benoit Cœuré liet dit dinsdag 19 mei weten. De bubbel is blijkbaar nog niet groot genoeg en er zal dus nog meer geld in de financiële markten worden gepompt.

Beurzen omhoog, euro en rentes omlaag

Net nadat de euro weer wat in waarde steeg en er hevige schommelingen waren te constateren op de obligatiemarkt, komt de ECB met deze nieuwe maatregel. De waarde van de euro schoot na het bericht meten omlaag, en noteert nu onder de $1,12. Ook de rente op Europese staatsobligaties schoten omlaag, nadat de rentes afgelopen week juist fors waren gestegen. De beurzen, blij met nog meer stimulans van de ECB, zijn gebaat bij het nieuws en stijgen natuurlijkerwijs verder.

Statement ECB

Het gaat in het statement van de ECB vooral om onderstaande zinnen:

As you know, this combination of measures has created strong price effects in certain asset markets, going beyond what many observers initially anticipated. German yields, for example, were briefly negative out to around the 8-year maturity point and were below the deposit rate until almost the 4-year maturity. We have always stressed, however, that the objective of our programme is to influence prices but not to impair price discovery. For this reason I do not see the recent reversal in the price of Bunds and other sovereign bonds as a cause for concern, insofar as it reflects a market correction, recreates two-way risk in the market and reflects the fact that, as our programme takes effect, some of the more pessimistic assumptions of future growth and inflation trends are being revised. It is the rapidity of the reversal that worries me more. After several similar episodes, it is yet another incident of extreme volatility in global capital markets showing signs of reduced liquidity. [6]

Against this background, we are also aware of seasonal patterns in fixed-income market activity with the traditional holiday period from mid-July to August characterised by notably lower market liquidity. The Eurosystem is taking this into account in the implementation of its expanded asset purchase programme by moderately frontloading its purchase activity in May and June, which will allow us to maintain our monthly average of €60 billion, while having to buy less in the holiday period. If need be, the frontloading may be complemented by some backloading in September when market liquidity is expected to improve again. The slightly higher purchase volume that market analysts may observe in the coming weeks is therefore unrelated to the recent episode of market volatility.

De hele update van de ECB is hier te lezen.

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