Begin van het einde van de eurozone ?


Terwijl de financiële markten wereldwijd zeer positief reageerden, zijn analisten van banken over de hele wereld een stuk verdeelder. In Nederland steeg de AEX-index al ruim 3% en de Amerikaanse aandelenmarkten stegen naar het hoogste niveau sinds de kredietcrisis. De obligatierentes zijn flink gedaald, waardoor Spanje en Italië voorlopig weer wat bewegingsruimte hebben gekregen. Italiaanse rentes noteren inmiddels net boven de 5%, terwijl de Spaanse 10jaars rente gisteren voor het eerst onder de 6% dook en nu rond de 5,75% noteert. De vraag is dan ook of de ECB nu echt de eurocrisis heeft opgelost of dat het einde van Europa juist is ingezet.

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Duitse kranten waren in ieder geval niet blij met de maatregelen die Draghi heeft genomen. Nieuwsbladen pakten uit met koppen als “Zwarte dag voor de democratie”, “Einde van de Bundesbank” en “Gevangene van de politiek”. Het is duidelijk dat onze Oosterburen niet blij zijn met de oncontroversiële maatregelen als het onbeperkt opkopen van kortlopende staatsobligaties. Bankanalisten zijn over het algemeen veel verdeelder over de maatregelen. De RBS econoom Richard Tang noemt de stap van Draghi “het begin van het einde van de eurozone”. Hieronder nog een paar reactie:

Richard McGuire, Rabobank:

“IMF involvement sought in monitoring/setting conditions for ECB bond market intervention – possibly a bitter pill to swallow for Spain given Rajoy has made it clear the country already meets the necessary conditions.

“We wonder whether the ‘Troika-esque’ appearance of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) might result in Spanish resistance to petitioning for such a bailout. If so, market pressure may be needed for Spain to agree to a programme.

Richard Tang, RBS Securities:

The real beginning of the end of the Eurozone starts today. Officially, today the ECB will begin to socialize the debt of the Eurozone and pool the ultimate losses. More importantly, nations are implicitly signing on to share in the burden of the future liabilities of the entire zone which will become acute as we approach the social liability obligation in the latter part of this decade that has not been addressed and in fact, worsened in recent years. The European Baby Boomers will begin to retire en masse no longer decades from now but now only years.

By giving up seniority on its bond purchases, the ECB is effectively beginning a process of debt cost mutualization that will be the ultimate unraveling of the monetary union. Simply, they buy the debt of the essentially insolvent periphery and issue short-term obligations of the entire Eurozone to fund it. In some ways, it’s not so different than the U.S. govt issuing federal debt and aiding insolvent states. The part that is different is that the individual states do not have the right to vote their way out of the union (we saw how that ended last time). This the essence of my view.’

‘The bet the ECB elite is making is that the economy improves dramatically before these liabilities become untenable. If somehow the world’s central banks engineer a significant global recovery, they can grow their way out of all these problems, retire at age 60 and sip prosecco for the next 22 years of life expectancy. If not… Houston, we have a problem. You decide. The zone will fragment as countries, such as Finland who spent the early 1990s in a miserable fiscal crisis to morph into a 50% debt-to-GDP ratio, lose the control of their voting populace and ultimately, management changes. It’s always different when you have to open your own wallet.

The fact that Draghi claims this unlimited bond buying program is conditional is laughable. I challenge the ECB to sell the debt the first time one of these countries violates the framework into a market that is gapping lower. This is debt mutualization without real fiscal union or enforceability. This is not today’s problem, tomorrow’s problem, or next month’s problem, but it is a problem in coming years and a near inevitability.’

Ioan Smith, Knight Capital:

“With regards to seniority this point is important. Pari passu will not apply to existing SMP holdings which suggest dealing with Greece remains a problem. A precedent was set in Greece, and they haven’t as yet accepted a haircut there so why should an investor believe them that they’ll be ranked pari passu?

“The ECB decision to not have seniority in its bond purchasing plan will increase the liabilities of core European nations to the likes of Spain. We’ll have to see how effective the anchoring of the short-end of the curve will be, but as it stands it’s not an attractive proposition for encouraging ‘real’ investment back into the periphery.”

Carsten Brzeski, ING:

‘All in all, the ECB has presented a big new bazooka which should help buying time. This is probably he furthest the ECB can go to help governments. The focus on the monetary policy transmission and strict conditionality should also calm the Bundesbank temper, even if they would not admit it. However, the emphasis on the transmission mechanism is also a danger as it still contains a logical contradiction. With the OMT, the ECB will only repair the transmission mechanism in countries with ask for EFSF/ESM. But what about the other countries? It remains a bit strange. For the time being, one thing is clear: never underestimate Mario Draghi. He clearly delivered on his “believe me it will be enough” announcement. A man, a word. But as he said himself: “the proof is in the pudding”.’

Over de auteur publiceert artikelen over de crisis en de huidige (macro)-economische situatie. Ook nieuws over bitcoin & cryptocurrencies, de huizenmarkt, goud & grondstoffen, de machthebbers en het monetaire systeem. Twitter: @Biflatie